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Wheat Exports In 2015-2016 Could Be Highest In Russian History - US FAS Adjusted Forecast

16 November 2015
In three months, Russia's grain harvest forecast increased by 5 million tonnes on October 26 to 102 million tonnes, as reported by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS). Most notably, wheat exports in the 2015-16 market year could be the highest in Russian history, according to the report.
The previous forecast was announced in July, and it was recently adjusted to represent changes in the country's agriculture industry. One reason the forecast was adjusted, was due to a larger harvest area in Russia that has in some ways compensated for this year's smaller yields, compared to last year's larger yields. Also, conditions for wheat harvest were favorable in most of Russia's regions, except in the Volga Valley and some provinces of the Central Federal District because of spring and summer dryness, according to FAS as reported by World-Grain. Overall, the grain crop forecast changed favorably across most categories and includes: 60.5 million tonnes of wheat – 4.5 million tonnes more than July's forecast 16.5 million tonnes of barley – no change 12.5 million tonnes of corn – 0.5 million tonnes 3.3 million tonnes of rye – up 0.2 million tonnes 4.8 million tonnes of oats – down 0.2 million tonnes 0.7 million tonnes of milled rice – no change 3.5 million tonnes of other grains and pulses Russia's Wheat and Grain Exports 2015 From October 24 to 30, Russia had exported 584.7 thousand tonnes of wheat, whereas grain exports and grain-based products overall between October 24 – 30 amounted to 1.055 million tonnes, according to the agency. This included wheat exports in addition to about 260 thousand tonnes of barley, 37.1 thousand tonnes of corn, 175.48 thousand tonnes of other grain products. Since the beginning of 2015 to October 30, Russia has exported 28.8 million tonnes of grain and grain-based products, including 16.97 million tonnes of wheat, according to the agency as reported by World-Grain.com. A new prospect for wheat has been the Russian Agriculture Ministry's consideration of possibly abolishing or changing the export duty on wheat depending on whether the Russian forex market stabilizes, Sergey Levin, deputy agriculture minister, said on October 28 as reported by ITAR-TASS. The duty was enacted July 01, 2015. “If we find out that the turbulence has passed and the foreign exchange rate dynamics together with all concurrent factors stabilize, whether upward or downward, we'll openly make a respective decision to lift or change restrictions,” Levin said, according to ITAR-TASS. As of October 1, the minimum duty on wheat was at 10 rubles, or US $0.14, per 1 tonne. In 2014, Russia had increased wheat exports by 60 percent over the previous year to 22.1 million tonnes and reached US $5.423 billion compared to US $3.5 billion in 2013, according to Russia's Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor). World-Grain.com - http://www.world-grain.com/news/news%20home/LexisNexisArticle.aspx?articleid=2474440819 ; second article - http://www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/World_Grain_News/2015/11/Russias_wheat_corn_harvest_est.aspx? In three months, Russia's grain harvest forecast increased by 5 million tonnes on October 26 to 102 million tonnes, as reported by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS). Most notably, wheat exports in the 2015-16 market year could be the highest in Russian history, according to the report.   The previous forecast was announced in July, and it was recently adjusted to represent changes in the country's agriculture industry.   One reason the forecast was adjusted, was due to a larger harvest area in Russia that has in some ways compensated for this year's smaller yields, compared to last year's larger yields. Also, conditions for wheat harvest were favorable in most of Russia's regions, except in the Volga Valley and some provinces of the Central Federal District because of spring and summer dryness, according to FAS as reported by World-Grain.   Overall, the grain crop forecast changed favorably across most categories and includes: - 60.5 million tonnes of wheat – 4.5 million tonnes more than July's forecast - 16.5 million tonnes of barley – no change - 12.5 million tonnes of corn – 0.5 million tonnes - 3.3 million tonnes of rye – up 0.2 million tonnes - 4.8 million tonnes of oats – down 0.2 million tonnes - 0.7 million tonnes of milled rice – no change - 3.5 million tonnes of other grains and pulses     Russia's Wheat and Grain Exports 2015   From October 24 to 30, Russia had exported 584.7 thousand tonnes of wheat, whereas grain exports and grain-based products overall between October 24 – 30 amounted to 1.055 million tonnes, according to the agency. This included wheat exports in addition to about 260 thousand tonnes of barley, 37.1 thousand tonnes of corn, 175.48 thousand tonnes of other grain products.   Since the beginning of 2015 to October 30, Russia has exported 28.8 million tonnes of grain and grain-based products, including 16.97 million tonnes of wheat, according to the agency as reported by World-Grain.com.   A new prospect for wheat has been the Russian Agriculture Ministry's consideration of possibly abolishing or changing the export duty on wheat depending on whether the Russian forex market stabilizes, Sergey Levin, deputy agriculture minister, said on October 28 as reported by ITAR-TASS.   The duty was enacted July 01, 2015.   “If we find out that the turbulence has passed and the foreign exchange rate dynamics together with all concurrent factors stabilize, whether upward or downward, we'll openly make a respective decision to lift or change restrictions,” Levin said, according to ITAR-TASS.   As of October 1, the minimum duty on wheat was at 10 rubles, or US $0.14, per 1 tonne.   In 2014, Russia had increased wheat exports by 60 percent over the previous year to 22.1 million tonnes and reached US $5.423 billion compared to US $3.5 billion in 2013, according to Russia's Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor).   World-Grain.com - http://www.world-grain.com/news/news%20home/LexisNexisArticle.aspx?articleid=2474440819 ; second article - http://www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/World_Grain_News/2015/11/Russias_wheat_corn_harvest_est.aspx?

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